This is Economics 101. Tariffs help no one. They don’t help the country that’s imposing them, and they don’t help the country they’re imposed on. It’s a lose-lose situation all around.
With kaleidoscopic tariff policies making endless headlines and trade deals hanging in the balance, questions around the real economic impact are front and center for citizens, businesses, and countries around the world.
For Yuhana Barakzai, Deal Structurer at Shell, the answer is clear: tariffs are just foreign policy maneuvers trojan-horsing within a mainstream narrative of protecting economic interests. He says the winners will largely be defined by their patience and access to dry powder to make investments when deals present themselves.
Hedged advantages for cash-heavy players: Even though the immediate threat of new tariffs is paused, the uncertainty lingers—especially as trade talks between the U.S. and the UK continue. Barakzai remains cautiously optimistic. "The downside case is that, yes, the tariffs are imposed. So the UK doesn't manage to strike a trade deal with the U.S.—which, on a personal level, I don't think will happen. I do think they'll probably reach some sort of agreement," he says. "But if they don’t, and the 10% tariffs get carried forward, that’s where companies with larger portfolios and more cash on hand could use that to their advantage."
Optimist by nature: Despite the turbulence, Barakzai stays hopeful—and believes that scale gives major players like Shell a buffer and a strategic edge. "I’m an optimist, so you’re going to struggle to get a negative answer from me," he says. "But I look at it from a very positive perspective. Companies like Shell—because they’re juggernauts—will be able to power through these circumstances, and potentially even benefit compared to smaller players with less cash."
I think I’m an optimist, so you’re going to struggle to get a negative answer from me. Companies like Shell—because they’re juggernauts—will be able to power through these circumstances, and potentially even benefit compared to smaller players with less cash.
'That's just how it goes': Even if the intention behind tariffs is political, the economic consequences are very real—especially for companies trying to navigate uncertainty. Barakzai poses the fundamental question that many businesses are asking: "Is this really going to be something that gets put on the companies, or are they just going to pass it on to consumers?" he says. "Because inevitably, what that leads to is price increases—and inflation. Same scenario here. Tariff increases raise your cost of production. So then, are companies going to absorb that, or are they going to pass it on? If you ask me, they're probably going to pass it on. That’s just how it goes."
Helping no one: "This is Economics 101," Barakzai says. "Tariffs help no one. It’s a lose-lose situation all around." Barakzai, who has an economics background himself, views the recent rise in tariff talk as more political than practical. "I look at tariffs more as a foreign policy tool rather than an economic one," he says.
Stay calm: While many in the business world are reacting to every new twist in the geopolitical landscape, Barakzai encourages a steadier hand. "The new presidency in the U.S. has obviously been very explicit in its stance," he says. "That kind of political shift can make people feel like the whole world is falling apart and their house is on fire. But if you look at it from a corporate perspective, and you look at other countries—it’s very much business as usual. The main goal is not to be reactionary, as we’ve learned from the tariffs. Stay calm, trust your judgment, and continue doing what you believe in."
